Beginning MONDAY APRIL 14, 2014 Allied Grain's Shipping and Receiving will be shut down for approximatly 3 weeks due to elevator maintainence. Our Office and Marketing will not be affected.
CORN: The markets are seeing a dead cat bounce today as open interest report confirms yesterday's sell off was liquidation (corn open interest fell over 10k contracts, wheat down 4k, beans & soyoil down almost 3k, meal down ~4k and even oats down 200 contracts). Corn planting number at 6% was not as big as the 9% that the trade expected but many expect this number to jump next week with some windows of opportunity to run in the southern Midwest. Next rain system will be Wed/Thurs favoring the northern Midwest while the next major system is not until Sun-Tues (chance of snow even according to one model). Corn basis levels are mostly steady to firmer with the futures break choking off any old crop selling. Ethanol values were supportive yesterday despite the break in corn. Export news is quiet other than S. Korea tenders for 60k tons of option origin corn for Oct arrival. Rail freight values are steady with spot BNSF bid $1,500 vs $2,000 offers (the offer side is down slightly from Monday). Look for consolidation today with resistance now in July corn toward $5.00-5.02.
WHEAT: Wheat is bouncing slightly after yesterday's break. Winter wheat conditions were unchanged on the G/E at 34% but the P/VP did grow by 1%. Much of the HRW belt with the exception of the southwestern parts of KS, OK and TX are to see moisture this week. Wheat Quality Tour kicks off next Monday in KS. US spring wheat planting is running 10% vs 19% avg. Iraq rejected all offers on their wheat citing prices as too high (Russian wheat was the lowest offer). Japan does tender for 108k tons of wheat this week (w/ 52k to come from US). Canada Stats is out Thursday morning with farmers looking to shift away from wheat to canola due to better returns (horrific wheat basis due to rail logistical nightmare). Avg trade guess on wheat plantings is 24.4 mln acres vs 26.25 mln acres last year. This should give some support to Mpls wheat. US wheat basis is steady to softer tone. Look for support in WN toward $6.60-6.65 area.
SOY-COMPLEX: Beans and the products are slightly firmer on Turn Around Tuesday trade. Cool/wet weather in US has soybean planting running a little behind normal in the South (AR is 12% planted vs 48% avg, MS is 14% planted vs 26% avg). There is talk about more Argentine soymeal cargoes being sold into the US. Something to watch though is so far protein level of Argentine crop is running low. Hence it might difficult for Argentine soymeal to meet protein contract specs into the US or Europe. Interior US soybean basis is holding steady to firmer. Reportedly BNSF to put out a new rail rate for beans into St Louis but not published yet. In other news China's Ministry of Commerce raised their estimate of soybean imports in April will be 6.9 mmt (253 mln bu) vs earlier forecast of 5.11 mmt (188 mln bu) as they dropped their March import # from 5.69 mmt to 4.12 mmt (151 mln bu). Canadian farmers will be planting more canola & soybeans this spring instead of wheat & corn. Canola plantings expected to be 21.1 mln acres vs 19.9 mln last year while soybean plantings to be 4.8 mln vs 4.5 mln a year ago. May/July soybean spread continues to hover in a 10-14 cent range while soybean & soyoil receipts continue to be canceled.
A scan of crop news finds research underway to make wheat varieties that are more heat tolerant and disease resistant. Syngenta is launching a technology that extracts more ethanol from corn, and Beck's Hybrids has announced a multi-million-dollar expansion.