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August 21, 2015
CORN: Corn traded both sides overnight in a narrow trading range and comes into the morning slightly higher. CZ15 has initial support of $3.79 1/2 and initial resistance of $3.84 1/4. ProFarmer found good crops in MN & IA on Thursday, releasing yield estimates close to those released by the USDA. Their tour is complete with national yield projections due later this morning. The US generated 1.28 bln D6 RINs in July, the largest month of 2015. D6 RINs are created when a gallon of non-Advanced Renewable Fuel is produced or imported. Stats Canada reported an increase in corn & barley production to 12.3 mmt and 7.3 mmt respectively. Import data from China shows they took a record 1.1 mmt of DDGs in July; imports of corn, sorghum and barley all also exceeded 1 mmt for the month. Beginning Sep 1, their commerce ministry will begin requiring importers to "register details" about purchases, which could slow the growth of feedgrain imports. 55% of France's corn crop was rated goodexcellent, unchanged from last week after falling for several consecutive weeks prior due to hot, dry weather. Open interest dropped more than 5,000 contracts on Thursday in normal volume. US corn basis was mixed yesterday with continued improvements in the WCB but some softening in the ECB. John Deere forecast Q4 sales to be down 24% from a year ago.
SOY COMPLEX: Soybeans traded lower overnight and come into this morning down 4-5 cents. Thus far it has been an inside day of yesterday's session, consolidative. Oil down 25-30 points while meal is around unchanged; oil continues to be the weakest leg of the complex. SX15 has initial support of $9.02 & $8.94 with resistance at yesterday's high of $9.09. ProFarmer found big soy pod counts in MN & IA, up 9% and 4% from a year ago. The Western Corn Belt will see another round of rains over the upcoming weekend that could bring as much as 1"+ to some areas; most amounts will be 0.25-0.75". Amounts will be lighter in the ECB, less than 0.5". There are no threateningly hot or cold temps in the forecast. Weather remains a bearish feature. US interior soybean basis remained on the defensive yesterday with plants dropping posted bids by as much as 20 cents; the Gulf and PNW bids are firming however. 294 mln D4 RINs were created in July, the largest of any month of 2015. D4 RINs apply to Biomass-Based Diesel. China imported 9.5 mmt of soybeans in July, an all-time record. Less than 1% came from the US which is not unprecedented for the month of July. Stats Canada estimated their 2015 canola crop will be down 14% from 2014 to 13.3 mmt; this is smaller than had been expected by the trade. Their soybean crop is estimated at 5.9 mmt, down 3%. Palm oil finished lower for the 8th consecutive week.
Allied Grain will be closed Friday, July 3rd Have a great 4th of July Weekend!!!